• Home
• Reviews
• News
• Downloads
• CNET TV

About me

My posting summary

1 to 2 of 2

My comments

• Obama is not only heavily odds on favorite to win. There is also a good chance that he wins by a landslide: http://www.hubdub.com/m18225/Will_Barack_Obama_win_a_landslide_victory_at_least_23_of_electoral_college_votes In reply to: "President Obama? Web sites bet it's a done deal"

  November 4, 2008

  0 replies

• This is really cool. I've just made my picks. I used our electoral forecast to predict Obama to win by 334 electoral votes.
  
  Rafe - I understand your objections to prediction markets. There have been a lot of "prediction market" start-ups that haven't gained liquidity and therefore their forecasts are meaningless. However that isn't the case with the ones you linked to above. If you take the presidential contract the markets you mention above, our own market Hubdub and the UK betting markets, the prices have moved in sync. Millions of dollars are being traded on the UK betting markets and all the research has shown them to be accurate.
  
  Here is our current market and links to the other major exchanges: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election In reply to: "Predictify helps you understand other voters"

  October 1, 2008

  0 replies