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• Member since: August 6, 2008

My posting summary

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My comments

• Solar and wind energy will last no longer than the highways, which provide for their maintenance, as well as the maintenance of the power grid.
  
  According to independent studies, global crude oil production peaked in 2008 and is now declining terminally.
  
  Within a year or two, oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand.
  
  Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production is now declining from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
  
  Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: ?Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:?
  
  "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
  
  With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won?t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, water supply, waste water treatment, and automated building systems.
  
  Documented here:
  http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
  http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/ In reply to: "The next big thing in wind: Slow wind, huge turbines"

  May 18, 2009

  1 reply

• Good car, but it will take 15 years to change the fleet of cars in the U.S. and we are out of time.
  
  The top story of the year is that global crude oil production peaked in 2008.
  
  The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.
  
  Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.
  
  Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1) http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_monthly.pdf.
  
  Peak Oil is now.
  
  Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):
  
  * Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
  
  * Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of ?Oil Watch Monthly? (2008)
  
  * Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)
  
  * Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)
  
  * T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)
  
  * U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)
  
  * Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)
  
  * Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)
  
  * Chris Skrebowski, Editor of ?Petroleum Review? (2010)
  
  * Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)
  
  * Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)
  
  * Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)
  
  Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.
  
  Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.
  
  Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
  
  Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: ?Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:?
  
  "By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
  
  With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won?t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
  
  Documented here.
  http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
  http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/ In reply to: "Toyota to build electric town car, plug-in hybrids"

  January 11, 2009

  0 replies

• Hey August 6,
  
  OIL SHALE IS NOT OIL, NOR IS IT SHALE, AND THE ENERGY RETURNED ON EENERGY INVESTED FOR OIL SHALE STINKS IS NEGATIVE AND WILL ALWAYS BE NEGATIVE, EVEN WHEN OIL HIT $1,000 PER BARREL
  
  The World Energy Council makes the following assessment about the potential of oil shale energy:
  
  ?If a technology can be developed to economically recover oil from oil shale, the potential is tantalisingly enormous. If the containing organic material could be converted to oil, the quantities would be far beyond all known conventional oil reserves. Oil shale in great quantities exists worldwide: including in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Estonia, France, Russia, Scotland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the USA.
  
  The term ?oil shale? is a misnomer. It does not contain oil nor is it commonly shale. The organic material is chiefly kerogen and the "shale" is usually a relatively hard rock, called marl. Properly processed, kerogen can be converted into a substance somewhat similar to petroleum. However, it has not gone through the ?oil window? of heat (nature?s way of producing oil) and therefore, to be changed into an oil-like substance, it must be heated to a high temperature. By this process the organic material is converted into a liquid, which must be further processed to produce an oil which is said to be better than the lowest grade of oil produced from conventional oil deposits, but of lower quality than the upper grades of conventional oil.
  
  With increasing numbers of countries experiencing declines in conventional oil production, shale oil production may again be pursued. One project is now being undertaken in north-eastern Australia, but it seems unlikely that shale oil recovery operations can be expanded to the point where they could make a major contribution toward replacing the daily consumption of oil worldwide.
  
  Perhaps oil shale will eventually find a place in the world economy, but the energy demands of blasting, transport, crushing, heating and adding hydrogen, together with the safe disposal of huge quantities of waste material, are large. On a small scale, and with good geological and other favourable conditions, such as water supply, oil shale may make a modest contribution but so far shale oil remains the ?elusive energy?.?
  
  The 2007 GAO study concluded that, ?it is possible that in 10 years from now, the oil shale resource could produce 0.5 million to 1.0 million barrels per day.? But the GAO noted that the development of oil shale faces key challenges, including: ?(1) controlling and monitoring groundwater, (2) permitting and emissions concerns associated with new power generation facilities, (3) reducing overall operating costs, (4) water consumption, and (5) land disturbance and reclamation.?
  
  Walter Youngquist of the Colorado School of Mines provides a detailed history and analysis of attempts to develop Colorado?s oil shale. After spending billions of dollars, industry has terminated oil shale operations due to a low net energy recovery and a lack of water resources.
  
  Finally, anyone with common sense who has seen oil shale can look at the little bit of dry carbon embedded in marmal rock and see this oil shale stuff ain't goin nowhere. In reply to: "The alternative-energy bubble"

  August 6, 2008

  0 replies

• Nuclear energy is not the answer, as it provide electric power, which is not needed. We need liquid fuels:
  
  According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons and other independent forecasters, global crude oil production is now declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.
  
  This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.
  
  Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.
  
  We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from ?outside,? and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.
  
  This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
  
  I used to live in NH, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? In reply to: "The alternative-energy bubble"

  August 6, 2008

  1 reply