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October 6, 2008 4:35 PM PDT

OK, so I'm a tech Pollyanna. Sue me

Posted by Charles Cooper
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You know it's grim out there when the television talking heads report that the stock market only finished down 369 on a day when it fell as low as 800 points.

(Credit: CNET News)

With banks disappearing, liquidity drying up, and the political class clueless about events overtaking the economy, this is what a crisis looks like. If you want a good primer on the origins of what's now turning into a global credit crunch, check out the primer, courtesy of 60 Minutes, that I've embedded at the bottom of this post.

The $64,000 question (now $32,000 and falling) is the impact on the technology industry. So it is that just Monday, the following items came in on the transom:

• SAP issued a third-quarter warning.

• Netflix lowered its quarterly outlook.

• Another Wall Street house cut estimates on Yahoo.

• eBay announced plans to lay off 1,000 employees.

Heading into the teeth of earnings season, the news won't be much more encouraging. At best, it promises to be a rough patch. At worst, who knows? The VIX, a volatility index, climbed to levels Monday that now basically price in the coming of Armageddon. OK, we've seen better times. But before jumping off a ledge, some historical context is in order.

The pendulum swings both ways. Fact is that we've been here before, folks. Not in the exact same circumstances, of course, but in an atmosphere where the fashion of the day favored sackcloth and ashes.

Remember the October 1987 crash? In its aftermath, technology companies couldn't get the time of day from investors. Back then, I was a young reporter and was amazed that it didn't seem to matter that companies like Apple or IBM had beaten expectations. Their stocks would still get creamed. The herd simply was too frightened to think past the headlines du jour.

But Silicon Valley kept doing what it always does, inventing better hardware and software. Venture capitalists regained their nerves, entrepreneurs got funded, and innovation flourished.

More people have fresher memories of the Internet bubble burst. That was an especially ugly time as tech got nearly obliterated after 2000. For a while, it seemed the weekly additions to the Dead Pool of former high flyers would never end. But as bad as it got, that was only a brief chapter in the longer-running story of the computer industry. Normalcy returned and market valuations--for real companies, not the fakers--would later recover.

As the author of Ecclesiastes wrote a long time ago, there is nothing new under the sun. Cliche or not, take that advice to heart in the days and weeks ahead. It may come in handy.

Charles is an executive editor with CNET News. He has covered technology and business for more than 25 years. A graduate of Queens College and Columbia University, Cooper began his career in journalism at the Associated Press before moving to technology coverage. Before joining CNET News, he worked at Computer & Software News, Computer Shopper, PC Week, and ZDNet. He received the Excellence in Journalism award from the Northern California branch of the Society for Professional Journalists for column writing. In addition to his blogging and podcast appearances, he is a co-host of the CNET News Daily Debrief. E-mail Charlie.
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Add a Comment (Log in or register) 13 comments
by bedney42 October 6, 2008 5:51 PM PDT
Coop -

Great article. Everyone needs to keep things in perspective here.

In my early 40's. I remember distinctly watching the news on Oct. 19th, 1987. I was standing the queue at my college cafeteria watching the big screen TV we had in the lobby. Everyone was really freaking out - well, it was a bunch of business majors :-)

By way of comparison, the Dow would've had to have dropped over 2000 points on a single day this last week to compete with that day!

Louis Rukeyser (R.I.P) had this to say at the end of that week on his show, Wall Street Week:

"Let's start with what's really important tonight. It's just your money, not your life. Everybody who really loved you a week ago still loves you tonight. And now that that's all fully in perspective, let me say ... Ouch! And: Eek! And: Medic!"

Hang in there folks!

Cheers,

- Bill
Reply to this comment
by directorblue October 7, 2008 5:53 AM PDT
Gee, I wonder how all these subprime mortgages permeated the market?

Could it have been the Clinton-era Community Reinvestment Act that forced banks to create "non-underwritten" loans? And the acceptance of these crappy loans into the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac infrastructure?

Shocking that 60 Minutes neglected to tell us how so many folks who couldn't pay off mortgages were issued these loans in the first place. More social engineering by well-meaning imbeciles, insisting that 50% or more of all loans needed to be issued to those completely unqualified otherwise.

Thanks, Democrats Franklin Raines, Jamie Gorelick, Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, Jim Johnson and (the top beneficiary of Fannie Mae money annually) Barack Obama!
Reply to this comment
by likeitis October 7, 2008 9:04 AM PDT
Or could it be that Reagan-era deregulation took the breaks off Wall St greed and stupidity?
by DarkHawke October 8, 2008 3:26 AM PDT
Word, directorblue, and 60 Minutes has been an invalid source of news for years, beginning at least as far back as the Alar scare-mongering. You want some truth about this entire scam from the least likely source, check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3igb71c_XI Be sure to catch your jaw before it hits the floor! ;)
by SirHomeALot October 8, 2008 4:44 PM PDT
Au contraire. No one held a gun to these bankers' heads - it was their own greed and short-sightedness combined with the insatiable need of the average consumer to keep up with the Jones's even if it meant mortgaging themselves into the next millennium. You can blame politicians all you like for this problem, but at the end of the day, it was human nature and our failing as a society to recognize it and do something about it.
by mrstolz October 8, 2008 8:16 PM PDT
Huh? The Community Reinvestment Act was passed in 1977 - Clinton was, what, 30 at the time? This Knee-jerk ?Republican? reply is absurd in the extreme - the current financial melt-down is due to policies put into place since George Junior took office - it HASN'T been secretly building for the last 30 years!

Try being at least a LITTLE objective.
by wahooyahoo October 9, 2008 3:06 AM PDT
Seems like your party has been in charge for going on 8 years now. When Bush was elected the word was passed to all power players on Wall street that they could steal all they were capable of getting, with no consequences at all. Did you get yours??
by johnericanderson October 7, 2008 6:15 AM PDT
Ah, give the Dems a break. They were only trying to BUY VOTES with entitlements and programs.
Reply to this comment
by likeitis October 7, 2008 9:04 AM PDT
As opposed to buying votes with tax breaks for the wealthy?
by DarkHawke October 8, 2008 3:22 AM PDT
@likeitis: Kind of illogical, isn't it? There are far fewer wealthy people than middle class or poor, so your bang-for-the-buck is gonna be much lower. The actual math is far simpler: lower tax rates = more money in the private sector = more capital, jobs and opportunities for everyone.
by likeitis October 8, 2008 7:59 AM PDT
@DarkHawke, you're right, I oversimplified. The math is tax breaks for the wealthy buys more campaign contributions buys more votes.
by azzuro2006 October 8, 2008 9:15 AM PDT
I work in the financial markets although I was only involved in plain vanilla equities. The best man at my wedding was selling CDOs for a living. I remember asking him on several occassions how these products work and why they are so attractive. They were so technical and complicated that even I didn't truly understand how they worked and how they were supposedly low risk investments. In the end, it came down to performance pressures and being able to deliver surreal performance by the time you were told what your bonus was - everyone assumed these products were cool - no body wanted to look stupid.

Its sad really. Although I never invested in these things, I always wanted to know how you could get a really high yield from a AAA rated security. No one could really convince me. Unfortunately for all americans and the entire financial system - people just said: "scr*w it....lets ride this bull market and get a big fat bonus so I can buy another Ferrari."

In the end its ironic. The world's truly free economy seems to be moving to a heavily regulated and controlled economy. At the same time, Asian countries who learned their lessons from the Asian financial crisis in 1998 are now heavily cashed up and likely to be purchase distressed US assets. I guess that while this is a true catastrophie, the silver lining is that Americans will learn the same lessons Asia did and eventually emerge from this much wiser and stronger.
Reply to this comment
by phrelin October 10, 2008 2:56 PM PDT
Yeah, you are a bit of a a tech Pollyanna. Like every other sector, two classes will do fine. The upper enders, like Intel and Microsoft may have to lay off some of "the help" and the low enders, two young techies in a garage working on a new idea that doesn't yet need capital will be ok as long as friends and family can toss them a crust of bread.

But then there's everyone else, which includes the likes of Intuit for instance. Do I really need to spend $98 to upgrade to the 2009 upgrade to my version of Quicken? I've upgraded every year and gained nothing I wanted from year-to-year. So I'll probably buy TurboTax, but wait a year or more to upgrade Quicken. And then there's the thousands of small businesses using Quickbooks. What are they going to do?

Intuit may be sufficiently capitalized so they won't really miss me and the thousands like me picking up the pieces if we're looking at less than two years for a recovery. If....

And a Blu-ray? Are you kidding? I'm debating about my Cinemax and Starz subscriptions. I think I'll just dump them, keeping HBO and Showtime for now. And if were looking at no recovery in sight after 9 months...well you get the idea.
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About Coop's Corner

Charles Cooper has covered technology and business for more than 25 years. A graduate of Queens College and Columbia University, Cooper began his career in journalism at the Associated Press before moving to technology coverage. Before joining CNET News, he worked at Computer & Software News, Computer Shopper, PC Week, and ZDNet. He received the Excellence in Journalism award from the Northern California branch of the Society for Professional Journalists for column writing.

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