prediction

Be right or wrong with the crowds: ZiiTrend

There are several ways to make educated guesses about upcoming events. The first is to the analyst's approach, which requires keeping track of trends, and looking at past history. The second, slightly more intensive way to do it is to compile evidence, and other people's opinions, to figure out what's happening next on an aggregate level: be it a video game plotline, political action, or strategic move by a company. ZiiTrend is a new site that falls somewhere in the middle, putting the wisdom of the crowds to work in a system that lets users test out … Read more

Spigit: The "Game of Life" for Entrepreneurs?

At the Office 2.0 conference, I met Paul Pluschkell, the CEO of Spigit. Spigit is a marketplace for ideas, reminiscent of a prediction market. But it's not quite one, since prices are set by an algorithm that takes more into account than just market demand. "It looks really complicated," I told Pluschkell. He told me that if I gave the site 5 minutes of concentration, it'd be crystal clear.

I gave it more time than that, and found the site very interesting. It's not what I would call clear, though.

The main site is … Read more

Trendio: A stock market for words and ideas

Trendio is a new prediction site that blends the feel of a stock market with that of fantasy football. Instead of using actual companies, Trendio places value on people or words as they show up around news sites on the Internet. Trendio users can purchase word stock using Trendillions (the site's fake currency) and manage their stocks within portfolios. Your goal as a Trendio user is to create a portfolio with words that interest you (so you can track their popularity) or that you simply think will do well on the market (so you can earn fake money).

Trendio … Read more

Deconstructing the 2007 tech prediction list

In between writing about the latest in social media, productivity tools, and all the other varieties of Web apps that the series of tubes is offering these days, I occasionally like to give a shameless plug about what's going on in the tech scene in my home city. After all, Webware is based out of the Bay Area, so as a New Yorker I feel like I have to make my regional voice heard once in a while. There's a great grassroots tech scene here, exemplified in the number of both gatherings--like the NY Tech Meetup, led by … Read more

What's the matter with Google?

A few days ago, it seemed like the big predictions for '07 would almost inevitably include some brave start-up--or collaboration--stepping up to the plate and challenging the most juggernautish of the Internet's juggernauts: Google. The predictions were less adamant about whether or not said challenger would actually succeed; after all, Google has recently established itself as pretty darn ironclad. But in 2006's eleventh hour, a string of mishaps, criticisms, and embarrassments have left the Mountain View, Calif.-based company with some exposed vulnerabilities that may make it somewhat easier for an "anti-Google" to emerge this … Read more