"The Innovator's Dilemma" is finally catching up with Microsoft. As Gartner analyst Michael Silver declares (and ZDNet's Larry Dignan captures),
Microsoft's Windows juggernaut is collapsing as it tries to support 20 years of applications and becomes more complicated by the minute. Meanwhile, Windows has outgrown hardware and customers are pondering skipping Vista to wait for Windows 7. If Windows is going to remain relevant it will need radical changes...."Windows is too monolithic," says Silver.
That monolithic nature will become ever less relevant as more and more applications are written for the web...and simply won't care what OS is running on the client. Gartner figures that 2011 will represent a tipping point when developers will care more about developing for the Web than for the desktop.
Ironically, Gartner's recommendations for how Windows should change sound eerily like a recommendation to become...Linux:
Windows should be able to be tailored to specific applications. Linux has been doing this for years, modular as it is. Linux reigns in embedded devices and scales up to the most demanding high-performance computing needs. Whatever the application, Linux has been tailored to fit it. Windows can't compete.… Read more