tim o'reilly

Web 2.0 and "peak waste"

Tim O'Reilly writes a thoughtful commentary on the evaporation of false wealth in the technology industry, wealth spawned and eventually spurned by an overindulgent consumer culture. Quoting his son-in-law, Tim writes that perhaps we've reached the "pinnacle of waste in our consumer culture," and can now move on to "[w]ork[ing] on stuff that matters."

I agree, but I'm slightly surprised to see Tim writing off the wasteful technology industry, an industry that he has in part encouraged over the past few years with a heavy emphasis on Web 2.0 and all the superficial "value" that it has created. I'm not suggesting that Tim has explicitly encouraged such waste, but rather that his ideas have sparked an avalanche of rubbish business models and technology and, most importantly, have done little to actually foster the individual's role in creating value.

Tim's emphasis has been on the social web, encouraging lightweight business models and technologies that facilitate content creation and harness others' work but do little to emphasize quality content creation (and may actually do the inverse). I don't fault Tim for not coming up with the answer to the Web's failure to invest in quality, but I'm struck by the discordance between his posts on waste and comments like this. For example, speaking of Chinese factories, Tim writes:

I've often wondered: "What do they think of us, so rich that we can afford to spend money on so much that is useless!" And now we find that perhaps our wealth too was rooted in illusion.) And even when it comes to consumer electronics, we've built a throwaway culture rooted in waste.

But doesn't this also largely describe the rise of the "amateur class" that Nick Carr derides and Tim implicitly (and sometimes explicitly) celebrates? A Web so chock-full of silly, superficial speech that quality content can't rub two dimes together?

Indeed, I would think that if Tim is concerned with discovering value in our post-peak waste world, he'd be investing more time in figuring out how exceptional content will get financed in the Web 2.0 world, rather than in the technologies that make it easy to borrow content but impractical to fund the development thereof.

I'm not suggesting that Tim doesn't "get it." Indeed, perhaps I'm mostly criticizing a world that gets his vision wrong.

But I do believe there's a disconnect between the hype around Web 2.0 and the reality of getting paid. It was horribly telling that one darling of the Web 2.0 crowd - Digg - was recently exposed as gigantic revenue hole: money goes in, but little comes out. The service that elevates raises the least-common denominator of content, and thereby helps to suck money out of quality content creation, can't make money itself.

In other words, Web 2.0 popularity doesn't necessarily mean very much in the real world that requires payment for value.

A favorite passage from T.S. Eliot's "The Wasteland" comes to mind:… Read more

Open source, free markets, and the capitalist urge for $0.00

Slashdot asks a provocative question: "Is Open Source Software a Race To Zero?"

Over time we've seen our business model eroding as other open source projects produce free versions of the same extensions and utilities that are our bread and butter. Something that was worth $5K last year is suddenly worth $0 because the free version is just as good as the paid. This same cycle is obviously having an impact on pure-play commercial software vendors. Is open source ultimately a race to zero?

It's a good question, but the answer is the same as if … Read more

The upside of a 2009-style depression

Boston.com riffs on what a modern-day Great Depression would look like, and Tim O'Reilly extends the analysis. The fascinating thing I found in both is just how much good would come from a serious meltdown.

For example, Tim calls out the following:

Desurburanization, and a preference for renting over owning a home [In other words, we'd go back to the world as it was before when you actually had to have saved money in order to buy a home - is this a bad thing?]; The re-legitimization of hand-me-down culture..., including national second-hand chains [Again, this sounds excellent - people reusing things rather than buying new and trashing "old" before it really has the chance to become old]; A preference for reliability over novelty and style [Sounds fantastic! Sign me up]; "The neighborhood appliance shop could reappear in a new form - unlicensed, with hacked cellphones and rebuilt computers" [Again, more reuse]; A fatter society, "as more people eat like today's poor"... [OK, I don't like chubbiness, at least not on my hips - Strike one]; "More crowded subways and cheap, unlicensed day-care centers" [Bad on the day-care centers, but wouldn't it be great to see more use of the subways and other public transportation?].

I don't want to minimize the negative effects of a depression, but most of these things sound like real improvements over our current society, which is big on convenience and waste.

Boston.com suggests that "today we spend much of our money on healthcare, child care, and education, and we'd see uncomfortable changes in those parts of our lives," and I'm not arguing that it would be pleasant to spend more time in emergency rooms. I'm also not suggesting I'd want to see more of the inane time wasting that cheap entertainment might provide:… Read more

Getting political the right way: The Mark Shuttleworth example

Tim O'Reilly recently defended his decision to put a political endorsement on his blog (spoiler for those who don't know how Sonoma County votes: He's for Obama), and did a reasonably good job of supporting the decision. Mark Shuttleworth, founder of Ubuntu, however, does a much better job in a post of his own.

Mark's secret? Stick to principles, not parties.

Mark doesn't talk about politics at all, per se, though they're hiding just behind his words. Instead, he talks about the value of regulated capitalism, and gives testimony of his time living in … Read more

There is more to Web domination than Web 2.0

Over the past few months, I've found that a too healthy regard for my own party line on open source occasionally kept me from seeing--or, at least, stating--truths about how to go about building an open-source business.

It turns out that there is more than one good way to "burn the boats."

Judging from Tim O'Reilly's latest post about the cloud, it looks like I'm not the only one to turn a useful trend into an all-consuming principle.

In O'Reilly's case, the principle is Web 2.0. It's a good idea with serious implications for building businesses on the Web, but it has come to explain too much for him. He dismisses cloud computing's potential to harness big systems to earn gargantuan returns (and monopoly power) on the Web. He suggests instead that Web 2.0--the harnessing of collective intelligence and the concept that applications improve the more people use them--is the key to "market domination" (my words, not his).

However, as pointed out astutely by Nick Carr, O'Reilly's single-best example of Web 2.0 dominance--Google--actually disproves his thesis. Google is a classic example of a proprietary business, not a Web 2.0 business. In an effort to see all roads leading to Web 2.0, O'Reilly fails to see that it's just one road among many, as Carr points out:… Read more

O'Reilly: Stop throwing sheep, do something worthy

NEW YORK--Tim O'Reilly, founder of O'Reilly Media, is known as a futurist, but his keynote address on Thursday morning at the Web 2.0 Expo was heavy on the realism in the wake of sobering news from Wall Street.

"(These are) pretty depressing times in a lot of ways," O'Reilly said in an address that first had looked like it would simply be a starry-eyed discussion of enterprise opportunities for Web 2.0. "And you have to conclude, if you look at the focus of a lot of what you call 'Web 2.0,' … Read more

A bill of rights for cloud computing

Cloud computing promises to liberate its adherents from the bother of messy implementations of software, while also freeing them from the constraints of hardware capacity. At the same time, however, cloud computing has the potential to deliver the ultimate in vendor lock-in.

My colleague, James Urquhart, has put together a proposed "cloud computing bill of rights" to help guide would-be cloud customers to those clouds best able to guarantee their freedom. Just as some are now clamoring for open-data commitments, James' suggestions are intended to deliver the value of the cloud without the lock-in:

No vendor shall, in … Read more

Tim O'Reilly: "[Open] architecture trumps [open source] licensing any time"

In a fantastic, insightful post, Tim O'Reilly lays the blueprint for the next decade of open source in the cloud. Money quote?

[I]f you care about open source for the cloud, build on services that are designed to be federated rather than centralized. Architecture trumps licensing any time.

This follows on Tim's constant theme over the last few years: Data is the new Intel Inside. It's a critical point given the almost meaningless tie between open-source licensing, triggered upon distribution of software, and the web, which is premised on non-distribution of software. Increasingly the web is being turned into competing bunkers of data, as Tim writes:… Read more

Open source + open data = Open cloud

It used to be taken for granted that the web was and always would be open. That assumption has increasingly come under fire as cloud computing has set up walled gardens for data and services...much as the desktop has done.

Tim O'Reilly addressed the threat of closed clouds and closed mobile devices to access the web in his keynote at the O'Reilly Open Source Convention.

Tim seemed to have lost interest in open source over the past few years, his interest instead turning to Web 2.0 (though he continued to recognize the need for an upgrade to the way we think of open source in terms of licenses instead of services). But somehow, somewhere, Tim re-discovered the importance of open source, this time in keeping Web 2.0 from turning into Manacle 2.0.

I'm not sure that you ever truly left, Tim, but this call to arms is timely and welcome. In his keynote, Tim said:… Read more

As Web 2.0 goes mainstream, VCs plot a mass exodus

The other day Forrester Research published the results of a survey that suggested that 63 percent of enterprises feel that Web 2.0 is going to impact their businesses in a big way.

Tuesday morning, I came across some news that venture investments into Web 2.0 start-ups have slowed.

So, just as enterprise adoption of Web 2.0 has picked up, the VCs decide to stop funding it. Does this make sense?

It does if we assume that VCs invest in early stage bubbles, not the later-stage mainstream. VCs got into the early stage consumer Web 2.0 party, … Read more