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A CES attendee checks out LG Electronics' 3D LCD TV.
(Credit: Marguerite Reardon/CNET News)Three-dimensional TV is coming to a living room near you. But will the technology spur a consumer spending spree like digital and high-definition TV did before it? Or will 3D end up being the next big flop?
One thing is clear, TV manufacturers need something new to get people buying TVs. Over the last couple of years, TV manufacturers have experienced a sales boom as consumers upgrade to digital TVs in anticipation of the government's mandated switch to digital TV broadcasts in February 2009. Eager shoppers have also been upgrading to high-definition TVs as movie studios, cable and satellite operators, and TV broadcasters have begun offering more programming in HD.
But as the economy worsens, the forecast for the TV market is looking grim. The LCD TV market is only expected to grow about 17 percent in terms of units shipped in 2009, according to research firm DisplaySearch. This is down from growth of about 29 percent in 2008. Plasma TV growth is also expected to suffer with the market only expected to grow by about 5 percent in 2009 compared with a 24 percent rise in 2008, DisplaySearch said.
As a result, TV makers are looking for the next hot thing to attract new consumers. And some are hoping 3D TVs could be it.
At this year's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, four of the top selling TV manufacturers--Samsung Electronics, Sony, LG Electronics and Panasonic--showed off their latest versions of 3D TVs. Panasonic set up a mini-home theater where its 103-inch, plasma 3D screen showed clips from New Line Cinema's Journey to the Center of the Earth and Walt Disney Pictures' animated film Bolt. They also showed high-definition 3D footage from NBC's broadcast of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing.
While some manufacturers, such as Mitsubishi, Phillips, Samsung, and Sharp, have already begun selling 3D-ready TVs, the top four manufacturers plan to have new, advanced 3D TVs on sale toward the end of 2009 and into 2010.
But the big question is whether consumers, particularly American consumers, will be willing to upgrade to a new TV just because it has 3D. Pricing for today's 3D ready TVs is comparable to other flat-screen HDTVs. Samsung and Mitsubishi currently sell their 3D-ready TVs for between $1,000 and $2,800, depending on functionality. These prices are in line with average prices for HDTVs that don't offer 3D readiness.
Keisuke Suetsugi, a manager for the audio visual center at Panasonic, believes that even the newer, more advanced 3D TVs will not cost much more than TVs without 3D. So for consumers already in the market for a TV, adding 3D readiness might not add much cost. But will 3D be enough to compel cutting-edge consumers to replace their 2- or 3-year-old TVs? That's what TV manufactures are hoping.
Three-dimensional movies have been around since the 1950s. And for most of its lifespan the technology has been seen more as a gimmick than something that truly enhances the movie-going experience. But newer technology and advanced special effects are helping 3D movies break into the mainstream.
TV makers believe that much of the demand for 3D will come from Hollywood, which is pushing 3D in a big way. Last year, DreamWorks announced that all its films will be produced for 3D production beginning in 2009. The company has partnered with chipmaker Intel to build processors that will help make 3D in the home a reality.
NBA basketball fans watch a live 3D broadcast of Game 2 of the 2007 NBA finals.
(Credit: NBA)Sports leagues have also been experimenting with 3D technology. Both the National Basketball Association and the National Football League have broadcast events and games in 3D to movie theaters.
From a technical standpoint, the technology is available and mature enough today to make 3D TVs available at a reasonable cost to consumers. But there are still a few drawbacks that could prevent 3D TV from becoming the next big thing in home entertainment.
For one, to get the really cool, immersive 3D experience without getting a massive head-ache, consumers will have to wear special glasses when they're watching TV in 3D. The glasses are needed because 3D imaging requires sending a different image to each eye. And the glasses help merge the images in the mind and trick the brain into thinking that it's seeing a single 3D image.
I checked out Panasonic's home theater in 3D. I must admit, the experience was phenomenal. I felt like I was on the floor at the Olympics opening ceremonies in Beijing right alongside the hundreds of dancers and drummers. But without the glasses, the image looked fuzzy.
Panasonic's Suetsugi admits that in a perfect world, consumers should be able to have the immersive 3D experience without wearing glasses. But he said that it will be at least 10 years before the technology is advanced enough to provide a similarly robust 3D experience without glasses.
"Glassless 3D would be ideal," he said. "But it's just not possible to do that now and get the same quality experience. You would need at least 50 times more pixels to get a display to provide the same 3D experience that we provide with our TV. We are still 10 years away from that kind of technology."
Taesoo Park, a chief research engineer at LG, which makes 3D display monitors for advertising and digital signage, agrees. LG plans to start selling its 3D TVs, which require glasses, late in 2009 or in the beginning of 2010. Its glassless digital signs were also on display at CES.
"Glassless 3D is available today for digital signage and advertising," Park explained. "But the technology is not ready for TVs, because it would hurt people's eyes or give them a headache to look at today's 3D displays for any length of time. It will be at least a decade before we can get the technology to make glassless TV a reality."
That said, some manufacturers claim they have developed technology that doesn't require glasses. Phillips uses a technology it calls WOWvx. 3M and Toshiba also showed off glassless 3D screens at CES. 3M has created a thin film technology that can be used to beam light selectively to the viewer's right and left eyes.
But glasses aren't the only thing that could hold back 3D adoption. Currently, there's no standard way to get 3D footage from the movie studios or from a live broadcasts to the home. Companies, such as Panasonic, are already working on developing a standard. But industry watchers fear that competing standards could emerge and spur another "format" war like the one that pitted HD DVD and Blu-ray against each other.
Panasonic's Suetsugi said he is hopeful that a common standard for 3D Blu-ray hardware, software, and TVs will emerge sometime this year, paving the way for 3D TV sales to pick up in 2010.
In addition to the standards issue, another hurdle for 3D TV has to do with the high production cost of shooting movies and events in 3D, as well as, the high cost of transporting the video across networks. Three-dimensional video requires multiple cameras for shooting. And it also requires multiple high-definition streams for transporting the video over carrier networks.
Regular standard definition television broadcasts consume more bandwidth capacity than other types of traffic like audio or text. High-definition video eats up even more. And it would likely take at least two full high-definition channels to broadcast live just one game in 3D.
This means that service providers, such as cable or satellite operators, would have to upgrade their infrastructure to handle the high bandwidth demands. Verizon, which is deploying fiber directly to consumers' homes for its Fios service, is already in good shape. But others such as Comcast and Time Warner Cable, are already finding it difficult to carve out enough bandwidth for regular HD video as well as Internet video on their networks.
"Transporting live, high-definition 3D streams is very expensive," said Steve Hellmuth, executive vice president of technology and operations for the NBA. "So there has to be sufficient demand and a pool of content before satellite and cable operators will devote resources to delivering it. I really think that Hollywood will initially drive adoption of 3D in the home."
(Credit:
Samsung)
After finally seeing 3D stereoscopic games in action, I now know what all the excitement is about. Playing a game with the "3D" feature turned on delivers on the promise set up by movies like The Creature From the Black Lagoon 3D. Movies that still to this day disappoint me when I think back to how they were not 3D at all.
Enough about childhood disappointments. This week Samsung announced the SyncMaster 2233RZ, the company's first stereoscopic 3D-compatible monitor. Basically, with the right 3D graphics hardware (Nvidia 8, 9, or 10 series); glasses (the display will be bundled with them for the first few months); and games; you'll be able to play games with added depth perception. The effect as I've witnessed it is very convincing.
Samsung claims that the 2233RZ can display 5:4 and 4:3 images at accurate aspect ratios without enlargement or distortion. It's also included an off timer feature that enables the monitor to shut down at set times and a shortcut button that allows you to switch from 3D to 2D mode quickly.
Where a typical monitor's refresh rate tops out at 60Hz, the 2233RZ goes to 120. This means the monitor should be capable of smoother motion not only while gaming but while watching movies as well.
According to Samsung, more than 350 games are "3D compatible" and ready to be experienced, but that number is actually higher as most PC games are compatible. You'll need a Nvidia stereoscopic-compatible graphics card, the Samsung 2233RZ (editor's "not enough time note": there is another display from Viewsonic that is also compatible, but I haven't had a chance to see it yet; keep watching this space), and finally the 3D shutter glasses to make it all work.
Samsung says the 3D glasses are designed so you can wear them and prescription glasses at the same time and that was the case when I used them. Adjustable nose pieces are also included for different nose sizes. The glasses are powered via USB, and according to Samsung can last an entire week without a recharge.
The Samsung 2233RZ will be available in April for a suggested retail price of $399.
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(Credit:
3DVU)
For the hopelessly turned around, 3DVU announced Way2Go at CES this week, a mobile app and online mapping service that will let you put personalized 3D routes on your mobile phone.
Subscribers to the new Way2Go service will be able to create up to 30 3D aerial picture routes online, which they'll then be able to access from their cell phones through a downloadable viewer. GPS tracking and verbal and written directions will also be there to keep you on course.
In addition to using routes to get from point A to point B, the service lets you forward routes that your contacts can view and use themselves for free.
Way2Go's service will cost about $5 per month and will be available by the end of March on Symbian S60 and Windows Mobile phones, and to users in the U.S., U.K., and select Western European countries.
It will be interesting to see this service go head-to-head with Google Maps for Mobile, which currently provides driving directions and street view for free to select phones.
We mentioned AMD and iZ3D's stereoscopic 3D approach earlier, and now we get to take a look at Nvidia's solution with the announcement of its GeForce 3D Vision. Unlike AMD, which is merely a beneficiary of iZ3D offering ATI Radeon customers a deal on drivers for its specialized 3D LCDs, Nvidia's stereo 3D hardware is homegrown, and it's also one of the few products that Nvidia itself is distributing to retail.
For $199, GeForce 3D Vision gets you a set of battery-powered, wireless glasses, as well as an infrared emitter that acts as a go-between for your computer and either a 120Hz PC LCD or a DLP HD television. Where iZ3D's glasses are passive, Nvidia's are active, which is to say they require power to perform the appropriate image processing.
The results of Nvidia's GeForce 3D Vision are impressive. We've sat through press demos with both Nvidia and iZ3D. iZ3D's were fine, but we got to see more games during Nvidia's demo, so we have a bit more experience with GeForce 3D Vision. The visual effect is more than simply cheap Hollywood-style 3D flash. In Left 4 Dead, we had the sense of a much more immersive depth of field than you get from standard 3D games on a 2D display. Nvidia also gives you a dial on the emitter to increase the perception of depth. Adjusting it can be jarring, especially at very high settings, but we liked having the option, and we're not aware of a similar feature on the iZ3D displays.
Nvidia's GeForce 3D Vision glasses and IR emitter.
(Credit: Nvidia)Despite its active glasses, Nvidia's take on stereoscopic 3D also relies on specialized LCDs, in this case those with a 120Hz refresh rate over dual-link DVI. Samsung and Viewsonic will be offering such displays soon, although initial reports have listed prices at $479 for the 22-inch model. Prices will drop as 120Hz LCDs become less exotic, but that's still about $679 worth of hardware to enjoy Nvidia's 3D tech, compared with only $399 for the display and glasses from iZ3D.
Traditionally, stereoscopic 3D has been scoffed at due to clunky hardware, lackluster game support, and a headache-inducing flicker effect. We haven't sat down for a good gaming all-nighter to see if either vendor has eliminated the headaches, but the vastly enhanced visual effects of the games and movies we've seen over the last month with stereo 3D make us think that the technology might finally be ready for consumer success. And you can scoff at the glasses all you like, but, as Nvidia suggested to us when we scoffed ourselves, if you're willing to jump around your living room with a plastic guitar in your hands, are 3D gaming glasses really all that bad?
iz3D, makers of 3D-capable LCDs, is showing off a few prototypes of its technology on the CES show floor. This news is actually from the end of December, so we're playing a bit of catch-up, but as you'll find out throughout the show, stereoscopic PC gaming may finally gain some traction this year.
Specifically to iZ3D, according to a news release, it will have three prototypes on display. From the release (PDF):
"New iZ3D Immersion Series that gives users an incredible total 3D effect. It is a Triple iZ3D monitor setup with a flight or racing game simulator that really puts players in the experience!
26" iZ3D Prototype - Thought the 22-inch widescreen was awesome? Wait until you see the 26-inch version!
22" Widescreen Console Game Compatible Prototype - Now play many popular Xbox or PS3 games in 3D on the new iZ3D 22-inch game compatible monitor.
iZ3D's special 3D LCD's don't appear that different from normal PC displays.
(Credit: iZ3D)Prior to this news, iZ3D also cast its lot with AMD, by way of a free $50 credit for a stereoscopic driver designed to pair ATI Radeon 3D cards and iZ3D's specially designed LCD's. To get the 3D effect, you need to purchase one of iZ3D's LCDs ($399 for the standard 22-inch model), which also includes three pairs of special polarized glasses. The glasses look relatively nondorky (you can see for yourself here), and by wearing them while playing a game or watching a 3D-enabled movie, you get the full 3D, pop-out-of-your-screen effect.
AMD and iZ3D may not be the only vendors with a new 3D PC solution in mind, and having seen the affect in action, at least briefly, we can report that it is indeed impressive, and better than the either the old red-and-blue lens-style 3D, or other, more recent efforts. Aside from the required purchase of a new, specialized LCD (that still works fine with standard 2D images), the major obstacle is whether gamers will be willing to don a pair of special glasses to play a game. But if you'll wear a clunky headset, are special glasses that much of a leap?
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