James - in your CNET Music Weekly emailed newsletter titled,
"Year of the subscription", you said "According to the Chinese
calendar, this is the year of the dog. According to the digital
media calendar, this is the year of the subscription."
Your "Year of the (MP3/PVP) Subscription" begins with Napster's
death!
I think that will be a harbinger of the immanent fate of all other
MP3 subscription services because it seems increasingly clear
that SJobs was right when he said that most people want to own
their own music - not rent it, and then lose all of it the month
they happen to let their subscription lapse.
And if the non-iTunes MP3 world is never able to come up with
as good a music store system as the iTunes Music Store's that
also sells permanent burnable re-sellable copies of purchased
downloaded WMA or Real/Rhapsody or OggVorbis etc. music the
way the iTMS does, then you are going to see iPod forcing
Creative/Zen and all its WMA-playing ilk out of the MP3 business
- fairly soon.
Vongo looks like it's going to be a big hit (if I understand it
correctly) - even without iPod compatibility, for the same reason
that iPod is a hit - IF (and only if) you get to own what you pay
for the way you can with iTunes.
Meanwhile, first Napster, and then sooner or later, all the other
subscription services will fail. All the enormous investments in
MP3 subscription services are already spiralling down the drain;
the "glug-glug-glug" sound of their complete loss is about to be
heard.