The business of making predictions is precarious; being proven wrong is often just a matter of time. Nevertheless, CNET editors set out to help CES attendees identify the hottest trends for 2004. On Thursday, we revealed the four technologies we believe will dominate the consumer electronics scene in a CES supersession called "The Next Big Thing."

If you think hot trend equals not on the market for years, think again. Our editors picked technologies that are already becoming widely available, so they won't be unfamiliar. The differentiating factor is that we feel every one of them is poised to truly influence the way consumers use technology in their everyday lives.

How did we come to these decisions? Well, in the months leading up to the show, our editors met with industry leaders, visited manufacturer facilities, and lab-tested hundreds of new consumer electronics devices. We also consulted CNET's Personal Tech Radar (PTR), which polls thousands of our 15 million online visitors. As a reality check to our own opinions, we also invited industry leaders to join as panelists in our supersession.

Portable video players (PVPs)
Next big thing: Combining the widespread appeal of MP3 players and the consumer love affair with Hollywood films, TV shows, and home movies, these pocket-size devices are ready to change where and how people get their entertainment.  Watch video

When we asked our PTR respondents why they'd want a PVP, 71 percent responded that they wanted to watch video anywhere, and 53 percent wanted to watch video during long-distance travel.

Editors' Choice: Archos AV320 Video Recorder

At CES 2003, Microsoft spurred interest in the category with its announcement of the Media2Go platform (rechristened Portable Media Center). A year later, there are only a few products available--and none based on the Microsoft design yet--but at least a dozen are due out this year.

But the biggest hurdle facing the category is availability of content. Providing legal content for these devices could make or break consumer demand, according to supersession panelists Hyder Rabbani, president and COO of Archos, and Rich Phipps, a director of business development from RCA Thomson, respective makers of the Archos AV320 and the RCA Lyra A/V Jukebox.

Smart phones
Next big thing: Sales of these devices will explode, based on the convenience they offer users.  Watch video

Motorola MPx200 uses Microsoft's Windows Mobile OS

What could be better than taking the device you use to store your contact info and combining it with the device you use to make contact? That, in essence, is what a smart phone does, merging a PDA with a cell phone. Best of all, you can minimize the devices you carry with you and get on-the-go Internet access to boot. Not surprisingly, the PTR indicated that the top two reasons to buy a smart phone are so that you don't have to carry a cell phone and a PDA and so that you can send and receive e-mail on the fly.

Market research firm Gartner is predicting that smart phone sales worldwide will grow 140 percent next year, to nearly 21 million units. And based on the action coming from vendors such as Palm, which recently acquired Handspring and its top-rated Treo 600; Research in Motion, which just announced the new BlackBerry 7510 equipped with a built-in speakerphone; and Motorola, whose MPx200 is one of the first smart phones in the United States to run Microsoft Windows Mobile OS, we agree.

Digital video recorders (DVRs)
Next big thing: These recorders let you personalize your TV watching; increased competition among makers will lead to a better experience.  Watch video

Pioneer DVR-910H marries TiVo and DVD recording

One thing that all of the technologies our editors picked have in common is that they give control over media and communications back to the consumer rather than letting users be controlled by technology. DVRs, for example, give you the freedom to create a personalized TV lineup to watch anytime, sans commercials. A whopping 82 percent of our PTR respondents cited the ability to watch your favorite shows when you have the time to enjoy them as the main reason to buy a DVR.

DVRs are currently in an estimated 3.2 million U.S. households, and in the next four years, that number is expected to catapult to more than 24 million. While TiVo and ReplayTV pioneered the technology first, the big growth is likely to come from content providers such as satellite and cable companies, which are beginning to build DVRs into set-top boxes. Mike Ramsay, CEO of TiVo, feels that the competition actually benefits the category, saying, "All this is creating visibility for the category. It's all legitimizing it in the eyes of the consumer."

Wi-Fi for home entertainment
Next big thing: Wireless networking is obviously not a new trend, but we're predicting that this is the year it moves out of the home office and into the living room.  Watch video

Prismiq's new wireless Media Player/Recorder

With so much digital media--be it music, photos, or video--being stored on home PCs with tiny monitors and puny speakers, it's only natural to want to take that digital content and play it on a big-screen TV and home-theater system instead. Wi-Fi technology in products such as digital media receivers, such as the Linksys Wireless-B MusicLink announced at CES, enables consumers to do just that without running cables from room to room.

The big challenge for consumer electronics manufacturers is that your typical Wi-Fi setup isn't nearly as easy to use or set up as your typical consumer electronics device. In fact, our PTR respondents felt that ease of setup and ease of use were more important when choosing a Wi-Fi system than reliability or fast throughput.

Todd Greenberg, product manager for broadband networking at Microsoft, said, "Our goal is for anybody to set up a network in 10 minutes--that's why Microsoft entered the market." With manufacturers working together to set standards, and more consumer-friendly products unveiled at this year's show (including networked DVD players and even A/V receivers that can tap into your home network), Wi-Fi devices for home entertainment are ready to hit prime time.

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